The Possible American Withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Beginning of Problems for Russia
Date 2012-07-29 | Topic: Articles
|By Hafeez Hasanabadi|
Whenever a drama gets closer to its climax, the secrets of the story begins to unfold one by one. The 32 years old Afghan tragedy is not only a long way to comprehend, but also many other regional grim problems have been sucked into its vortex with new dimensions. And it has many unnerving endings. Actually last year after Lisbon conference it became clear that America along with its allies withdraws from Afghanistan and it was supposed that by than the Afghan armed forces would be able to take over the charges of Afghan security. In my previous articles in dailytawar newspaper I expressed my strong concerns over American withdrawal, their English version posted in different sites, “in the context of Lisbon Conference the possibilities of ending the Afghan war! The contradictory Pakistani interests versus International”(http://frontierindia.org/balochistan/ ... -international-community/). Now once again this debate is seriously being discussed in different forums with the question that what would be the consequences of American departure from Afghanistan, what role Pakistan is likely to play? What sort of rearrangement India would resort to when it faces the difficulties; and along with that what about Russia?
Before moving further, let us first explain this point of view that right from day one, before entering in this war, Americans and western nations were protecting Pakistan’s interest and Pakistan used them with full potential through double standard games. As per Hillary, Pakistan’s gamble was serving well Pakistani interests as per its schemes. The exposure of Pakistani designs began at a time when Americans started realizing the importance of ex-Soviet Union K.J.B’s unfinished scheme. Pursuing the same policy of pushing or expanding its war from Afghanistan into Pakistan; and it has involved Pakistan unwillingly. We had suggested the same a two and half year ago in two different articles published in detailed explanation (The only solution to the Afghan problem. http://www.hafeezbaloch63.blogspot.no ... to-afghan-problem-by.html
Taliban; helplessness, the punishment of the bad deeds or golden egg laying chicken for Pakistan?http://sarmachar.wordpress.com/2009/0 ... ing-chicken-for-pakistan/)
To get Pakistan involved in the war in real term, it became necessary to make it an equal partner in pros and cons of the war. Previously Pakistan used to receive financial aid from America and West in the name of Afghan war and Afghan refugees. Pakistan used to create trump cards in the form of Islamic terror organizations so that it could use them in Afghanistan as per its design until of its own liking or a parasite government is installed in Kabul. Exactly in the same manner they could be used against India in Kashmir and against Baloch fighters in Balochistan. Soviet Union comprehended Pakistani design, but we, the Baloch did not support it, because Soviet Union did not support Baloch struggle to an extent where they could establish an independent State of their own. Baloch leadership, particularly, Sardar Khair Bakhsh Marri did not approve of the idea of allowing Baloch to be killed in an alien proxy war. He was of the opinion that to establish an independent Baloch state, historical lines of Baloch geography must be drawn without any hesitation. He valued Baloch Afghan friendship, but he never wanted to land into anther sphere of slavery after getting rid of the previous one. That is why he never forgot to remind the Afghan leadership that Baloch independent issue must be regarded as a separate issue. This ascribe had the opportunity to accompany him in some selective Jirga settings with Afghan leadership where I closely observed and felt that sometimes he was so tough and straight forward on his principled policies and stance that it caused some of the Afghan leaders uneasiness. But instead of being diplomatic, he always put forward the bitter reality related to nation future; because he never wanted to leave any impression of misunderstanding about Baloch and Balochistan future. In short, the Soviet Union leadership failed to guarantee any assurance to Baloch that they would continue their support for Baloch freedom in any condition. And our leadership also failed to convince them that “the success of all” in Afghanistan lies in all-out support of our independence. And that this notion must be put aside that Baloch can be used only to tame Pakistan.
Though the Americans must be praised for their half backed strategy that has compelled Pakistan to become a partner in this disastrous war by conducting drone attacks within Pakistan and plucking its most beloved/favored Talban which has blown up every bit of Pakistan’s sovereignty and its atomic power status, yet they’ve still failed to realize it thoroughly that the real game of Pakistan will start the day when America and its allies began to withdraw from Afghanistan. Creating mayhem within Pakistan, without any real objective, America and its allies cannot achieve any desired result. Rather, it results in culling of thousands of people, loss of billions of Dollars. This was the apprehension that Baloch did not start their war at the behest of Soviet desire. Today almost the same saga is being repeated.
Does America want to fight for the sake of fighting? Or is it a result oriented war with a far reaching broad vision which can easily be deciphered and talked about?
In our point of view, the American slogan that, they get rid Afghanistan of terrorism and guarantee that world is a safe place and peace flourishes, is extremely ineffective and some extent frivolous. On such American policy, it can be said without any vacillation that America is not only deceiving themselves, but also the world in the same way.
Do they do not know how come all of sudden the same genial Afghan people, famous for hardworking around the world, become so ferocious against each other and against the world as well? This is the basic question; they either do not bother to pay any attention to it or avoiding understanding it purposefully!
The reason, why I described American attempt of pushing the war on terror into Pakistani territory as half success, is that it needs, along with international community, to give this war a right direction with a logical slogan, based on ground realities. I think, keeping in view the half-baked successful strategy, conducting dialogue and cutting deal with all Talban fictions is nothing more than a wastage of time; because Pakistan through a barrage of media campaign has successfully assured the Talban that America and west have been defeated in Afghanistan; that they’re now seeking a way-out how to flee from here; that they shouldn’t care about their bullying, instead they should be kept in waiting on false promises for the sake of time wastage. In Media and Masques it is constantly propagated that America and its allies have exhausted all that they wanted to do and now they cannot do anything more than that; that the more they keep them in uncertainty the more the chances that time itself kills them.
The statements that Pakistan issue to media indicating that one day it would conduct operation against Talban, and on the next day it says it would consider this option. And then another day it says that it would bring the Talban on table for dialogue. But in the next breath it says that it cannot guarantee success for it. About Quetta Shura Council, there is a huge difference between statements issued by federal home minister and the provincial chief minister. All these antics and tactics are orchestrated to create confusion about real issue! In such a situation conducting operation in any part of Pakistan, be it Northern or Southern Waziristan, the perceived result would be nothing more than a transitory success. The basic reason is that, during all this while, when America presses Pakistan for conducting operation against Talban in possibly selected areas, Pakistan leaves no stone unturned to make sure that its most favored Talban make their escape to safe heavens. A few days back an American commander said “Once we used to share information with Pakistan about drone attacks and the result was that the Talban succeeded in escaping our every attack” and he taunted that and said “one needs not to hire an internationally famous Sherlock Holmes to understand this secret” on a question that Pakistan had still got the trump card.
Pakistan’s horrible scheme and trump card! It is up to the world to realize this fact or not, but Pakistan understands it at its state level that it has lost the game. Afghan public and leadership don’t regard it as their friend. And the Talban too have lost the capacity to form a government in near future which could be acceptable by Pakistan. And Pakistan continues to do whatever it can to advance its agenda. Who knows this secret better than Pakistan itself that to build a house one has to spend a lot of money and labor. But to destroy it one needs nothing more than a man with a hammer! And Pakistan got that necessary expertise how to get it done, that is why Pakistani trained Taliban uses a single dollar against America’s one and $1.5 million. It is out of our debate that what sort of task this single dollar of Talban has performed against 15 thousand American dollars, as Pakistan would continue to spend all its energies on creating terror in the region; because it cannot stomach the strategic partnership between India and Afghanistan under which Afghan army would be trained by Indian army. Such prospect of a scenario is beyond Pakistan’s wildest dreams!
Secondly India is to lay a railway track of 900km from Afghan city of Haji Gik to Iranian port city of Chahbahar, and it will have the access to Afghan mineral resources besides tens of other projects, all these projects cannot be stopped by Pakistan except through subversive act.
Pakistan did not get killed 3 million of Afghan people and 35 thousands of its own citizens just to eat the humble pie and remain isolated altogether from every affair of the region and on top of it, the title of conspiracy to be affixed on its forehead.
The religious fanatics trained in Pakistan would expand their activities in two areas particularly and in the third area generally. Afghanistan would be the first field of their battle. Secondly they start creating headache for India through Kashmir. Thirdly in ex-Soviet States, particularly in Russia they create maximum problems using the Muslim extremists. Now the question that comes in our mind is that why we involved Russia in our argument with Muslim states of ex-Soviet Union? It is easy to answer, Pakistan is extremely apprehensive of the possibility that Russia once again might expand its sphere of influence in Afghanistan after American departure. Russia with trade and investment, like India, enter into Afghanistan without war this time around.
No matter how much bitter the first Soviet Union (Russia) experience was with Afghans, however, the Russians understand the Afghans and Afghanistan better than any other country. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans are fluent in Russian language. In the presence of India the possibility of a positive Russian role is hundred fold greater in Afghanistan. Pakistan, Iran and China have their own national interests, but they’re almost contrasting each other’s interest.
It is almost misfortunate of Russia and the Ex-Soviet Republicans that since 1992 till the date, through different warlords, Islamic Propagandist Party, (Islami Tabliqi Jumaet) and particularly through extremist religious students, Pakistan has expanded its Islamic ideology to such an extent in Central Asia that it could wreak havoc at any time whenever it felt necessary to under particular conditions. And Russia and its neighbors cannot afford to tolerate it under current situation. To shorten the debate, the reason why Pakistan cannot be taken into the game is because it has always proven to be an untrustworthy partner, and also neither does it has any capacity of doing any good to any end. So, if the world really wants a result oriented war against terrorism, unlike Pakistan, than they should seriously consider the natural geography of different nationalities in that region and support their freedom movements, otherwise Pakistan is already a sunken ship, it can drown their ships too.
Courtey Dailytwar - Translated By Archen
This article was first published in DailyTawar, a Balochistan based Urdu language Newspapers.