Tough times in Afghanistan and the Mirage of Self-Deception

By Hafeez Hassanabadi

Translated by Archen Baloch

The national affairs for both Baloch and Afghan people are increasingly getting worst, much ever before, because of internal conflicts and uncertainties! The culprit behind this state of affairs is a single common foe. It is highly likely that things get further worst for these two nations if they failed to improve their conditions; however, one thing is for sure that in this quagmire, in near future  America, India, Russia and some other countries are certainly going to be affected adversely in the region. Therefore, in such condition, it is time for regional and world powers to come together and adopt outright clear policies for both Baloch and Afghan nations. In this desperate condition, it is promising that these two nations have the relative potentiality to turn the table against their common enemy.

The wishful thinking of Afghan Pakistan friendship: we won’t hesitate to say that Afghan goodwill gestures to establish a friendly relationship with Pakistan is contradictory to ground realities and nothing more than a self-deception!

Daud Khan, Noor Mohammed Taraki, Babrak Karmal, Dr Najibullah and Hamid Karzai all failed in realizing their dreams in establishing a good relationship with Pakistan. Exactly in the same way, just like his predecessors, President Ghani, no matter however sincere he is, is deemed to fail in establishing a good neighbourly relationship with Pakistan; as Pakistan would never reciprocate his goodwill gestures. In the past, all Afghan efforts for establishing a peaceful relationship with Pakistan were unilateral. And Pakistan never failed in sabotaging sincere Afghan peace efforts. Its diabolical intentions against Afghan people will never change!

Of the most Afghan leaders, only two leaders understood their enemy well and its conspiracies against Afghans and both tried to take some pragmatic steps against it but faced two different types of setbacks which handicapped them to take on Pakistan for its conspiracies. Martyred Dr Najibullah was all clear about Pakistan. But, unfortunately, the minds of the nation then was intoxicated with Mujahedeen euphoria of Jihad, unlike today, they were then totally unaware about what Pakistan was thinking about their country future! Their hesitation was the main hindrance for central leadership to make a decisive war! Besides this, Afghans’ natural allies Baloch and Pashtuns were also not ready for a decisive war for their future which could have helped Afghans to fix their affairs, and on top of that, Russia left him in the lurch.

The Karzai was also facing a more frightening setback because it was that time when both the nation and leadership realized that Pakistan doesn’t want to see Afghanistan be stabilized! Baloch too, under the banner of BLA, fielded their resistance against Pakistani occupation in the same period. Later other pro-freedom forces joined the liberation movement of BLA. But, double standard American policy towards Pakistan didn’t encourage them to go beyond pleading and complaint.

The vision of Dr Najib was never tried to be understood during his lifetime, the same behaviour is still prevailing and the Afghan leadership is still hoping for a goodwill gesture from the Pakistani side, despite being backstabbed by Pakistan many times. Now that Afghanistan is going through a transition period, any hesitation on the part of Afghan leadership leads to grave consequences.  It is because this gives space to external forces to interference in Afghanistan’s nascent institutions at their will.

The agreement that took place between America and Russia regarding Afghanistan issue bounded all sides, including Pakistan, not to interfere in Afghanistan’s affair.  However, America and Pakistan couldn’t keep their words and continued supporting the Mujahedeen. The agreement gave Russia an excuse and left Dr Najib in isolation. Today, though, America and its allies won’t leave Afghanistan in the lurch, but they know that the kinds of supports they’re rendering are not sufficient to pull it out of its quagmire.

Americans and Afghan leadership would soon realize that The Zarb e Azb that Pakistan has devised to combat terrorism is merely an excuse to evade its responsibilities. From the beginning, the American and Afghan leaders were pressing Pakistan to bring extremists on the table for talks. But after the launching of the scarecrow of Zarb e Azb, they now cannot press Pakistan anymore! Because, the bad relationship has already worsened as a result of the operation and,  the leadership,  with which they were in contact so far one way or another, now fled to Afghanistan or somewhere else. With complete preparation, Pakistan exonerated itself at the time when it involved China in the talk after President Ghani visit to China.  The Taliban leader Qari Din Mohammed was immediately welcomed in Beijing and it was hoped that China would play a decisive rule between the Taliban and the Afghan government for peace in Afghanistan.

Apparently, it is a promising headway in this regard; however, it seems it is a zero-sum exercise because, Taliban, despite using Pakistani passports would not listen to Pakistan, then how come they would listen to China?  What we can say if both America and Afghanistan want to live in fool paradise regarding China’s intermediary rule? But the reality is that Pakistan doesn’t want to do what it can do. It wants to buy time by bringing in China.

In other words, whatever bothers you is beneficial to us! The bitter reality behind all this is that all terror forces against Afghan peace have shifted their sanctuaries into Afghanistan before 2015 and they’re waiting for the opportunity arising from the power tussle in Kabul in their spring offences to wreak havoc in Afghanistan. In the next six months, beginning from October 2014, if the Ashraf Ghani government failed in adopting a clear-cut policy regarding expectations that Pakistan-must-behave-in- good-faith, then things gets worst for him after that period. Pakistan backed extremist forces continues to exploit Mr Ashraf Ghani tentative policies until he realizes that his unrealistic expectations have gone in vain. It is for sure that there comes a day when today’s soft-spoken Ashraf Ghani will thunder tomorrow in near future and America may also intensify its rhetoric.

The burning question is that if the Afghan leadership knows that their uncertainty would weaken the performance of the state institutes and provides an opportunity for the enemy to destroy them?

The same thing can be said about Americans, do they know that Pakistan is nowhere going to support them in future in the combat against terrorism? Rather, isn’t it the case that it is preparing itself to pour cold waters onto all that America achieved?  The increasing attacks in Afghanistan generally and in Kabul particularly are denoting towards that fact.

Amidst this scenario, the fear is that Baloch factor is not being taken seriously in the light of their national interest; instead, they’re regarding it as a pressure power for transitional interests which could be stunted by the powers at the heart of the play!

Baloch national leadership is in a position to persuade the world community that their freedom struggle is a serious movement to liberate their country under Pakistani and Iranian occupation. It must be taken as a strong stockholder, their men aren’t mercenary forces, and their forces are freedom fighters as locally called the Sarmachars, similar to that of Kurdish freedom fighters of Peshmarga!

But in reality, Baloch got to do a lot more than that! To begin with, they at least need to establish a representative cabinet before framing a doable formula for working relationship among all stockholders.

In a country like Afghanistan, it took three months to recount the votes of June elections result after so many allegations, at last, both agree to sit together in September, but still failed to erase the negative impression created by the lake of a working relationship and mutual consensus. We can deduce from the conditions that there are so many tussles the kitchen. Americans and its allies also seem to be not comfortable with the situation. American generals still can be seen saying that they need to refurbish the training of Afghan armed forces to make them more comfortable.  The question is what they have been doing in Afghanistan all that long regarding that fundamental work?

Despite knowing everything about Pakistan, America and its allies are still suffering from the worst type of confusion and indecisiveness which, so far, prevented them to take decisive action against its dirty tricks.

Baloch Need to Be Focused: just like their Afghan brothers, Baloch have to take their issues seriously and put their house in order. There is no doubt that an Independent Balochistan can play an essential role in building peace and prosperity in the region and Afghanistan. However, the international community would not be able to do anything significant unless Baloch and Afghan leadership formulate a substantial strategy that can address their difficulties as per their seriousness. Afghan leadership, as per their importance, failed to avail their nation of the American and world support, similarly, Baloch leadership too failed to convince the world community that their future independent Balochistan would not become another Somalia as result of a possible internal conflict.

To make thing easy, Baloch leadership needs to focus their attention on three most important issues; first, they need to increase their defensive capabilities which can challenge foreign forces to establish their writ on Balochistan and make it utterly difficult for them to kill Baloch. Second, they need to make sure that human rights violations would not be tolerated and they would be raised with full force at all level of world human rights forum. Third, they need to embark upon an effective diplomatic mission seeking support from world powers.

In addition, having surface politics in Pakistan is equal to wasting time and energy.  Once again we reiterate our previous stance that, three wars against two superpowers were continually fought in Afghanistan. It changed three types of governments. Soviet Russia met a humiliating defeat and returned home. Despite spending trillions of dollars, America and its allies are miles from nowhere resolving the basic issue. In the war against communists, they never held any rally or seminars. Also, the Taliban opponents didn’t come into power through protest rallies. Today America and its allies can’t wait to talk with the Taliban, because, the state system of the country is disrupted. They succeeded in making them believe that without their consent the state can’t establish its writ.

Baloch are facing a butcher type of state, they shouldn’t expect a cultured sort of political behaviour, and rather, they should adopt a discreet strategy by shifting all political activities abroad and continuing all those activities in the country that cannot be controlled by occupying the colonial state. We need to assure the international community that freedom of Balochistan, besides Baloch, is also beneficial to their security and trade requirements. It is only possible when there is consistency in the acts of active forces, especially political and human rights organizations in Balochistan with international standards and they don’t contradict each other.