Afghanistan Crisis: The Real Challenge to America’s Global Credibility

By Hafeez Hassanabadi

It happened many times in history when countries and nations competed well in the front-line battleground and secured the victory but they lost their battle at the table. The defeat of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan was exactly of the same pattern. The Soviet troops along with the Afghan forces were 80% victorious but they were defeated by Gorbachev and Yeltsin at the negotiation table. Many Russian generals today say with great sadness and sometimes with embarrassment that what Gorbachev and Yeltsin did to Dr. Najibullah was shameful [betrayal].

Had Vladimir Putin been in the place of them at the time, the United States and Pakistan wouldn’t have violated the Geneva accords by helping the Mujahideen, and the Russians would not have left Dr. Najibullah alone in such a way that his planes and tanks would stand idle due to lack of oil. That one-sided disloyalty tore apart the Soviet Union’s credibility in front of the world and its allies.  As a result, the sand wall erected on his trust fell to such an extent that its allies in Europe, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America were torn to pieces or forced to seek refuge elsewhere. The Soviet bloc was destroyed, and then external pressures worsened the internal pressures to the extreme level that the Soviet Union itself became fragmented and broke into pieces.

Gorbachev and Yeltsin sought to acquit themselves by declaring the system ineffective to cover up their failures. Under the pretext of economic problems, he tried to conceal the guilt of the collapse of the Soviet Union from his head but we know that the Soviet Union lost twenty-eight million Soviet soldiers and civilians in World War II and the financial losses of one hundred and twenty-eight billion dollars (which at current market rate amounts to more than four and a half-trillion dollars). These huge losses couldn’t bankrupt and didn’t break up the Soviet Union into pieces then, rather it further unified the USSR. 

 So, how could a block like the Soviet Union collapse with the death of fourteen and a half thousand soldiers and a total loss of eight billion dollars in Afghanistan? It is impossible. However, the losses of World War II loosened the grip of countries such as Japan, Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc. from within. Their colonies managed to get out of their grip and gained independence. But here, thanks to socialism, the Soviet Union became even stronger. In the 1990s, there were economic problems in the Soviet Union that cannot be denied, but not to extent that those who promise to die together on one front suddenly refuse to live together.

Although the US position is slightly different from that of the Soviet Union and there are no signs of its disintegration.  The steps it has taken in Afghanistan over the last two years and the role of a disloyal and opportunistic friend working on the Pakistani ISI script in the name of peace talks with the Taliban could cost a far greater loss to the world and America itself than what the Soviet Union suffered.

If the new US administration does not look at the above measures from a new angle and does not immediately reform them, which are in every way useless and destructive for the entire region and the world, including the US and Afghanistan, the result will be disastrous. The credibility of the US’s global leadership will be severely damaged, and it will also give China a golden opportunity to fill the gap in the region.

 One difference between the withdrawal of the Soviet Union and the United States is that when the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan, the United States was the sole character to rule behind Pakistan. Pakistan’s character was of a strong gatekeeper. At that time China was not economically and politically powerful, nor did it have leased Balochistan’s Gwadar port under the CPEC project. Pakistan was also not able to sell Balochistan’s vast mineral resources to China, giving it immense financial and strategic strength in the region, or equalling it with the United States to become a master one step further.

Also, India was not as advanced economically, politically and technologically as it is today to handle any major pressure, nor was Russia strong enough to look back at Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Arab world and the Middle East were not so compelled by Iran’s evil that they were willing to make the greatest sacrifices to get rid of it. Above all, the United States was not plagued by the worst divisions internally, nor was the geography of its external failures so widespread that it did not achieve any significant success, from Iraq to Syria, Libya, Ukraine, and Georgia.

We are not at all happy to say that from day one we have called the talks between the United States and the Taliban a failure of diplomacy, fruitless, and a waste of time. This is exactly what happened today, after nearly two months of sitting in Doha and failing to agree on a formula for starting talks on a one-point agenda.

As far as our opinion is concerned, we are convinced that the United States has taken two wrong steps, it will not correct them. For another 20 years, wherever they sit in the world, they will not be able to find a solution. We have written it in several articles for a year and a half, “America –Taliban Peace Talks or the Preparations of a New Unending War?” was published on April 6, 2019.

 We’ve constantly been saying that this path, this method, this attitude is all wrong and ineffective, which may lead the ruling group in the United States to find some support for their victory in the next election, but the oppressed and innocent Afghans will have to pay a heavy price for it.

On one hand, Pakistan and the Taliban have gained immense concessions from the wrong start of the US talks with the Taliban, on the other hand, this strengthened the Taliban by making possible the return of five and a half thousand dangerous fighters to the battlefield. It also paved the way for the solution of their economic problems to some extent by releasing more than 60 drug dealers according to the Taliban list. Looking at this attitude of the United States, one would be right in concluding that the leadership of the Soviet Union was much more loyal to Afghanistan than the United States.  If Russia was a supporter of the Afghan government, then it wholeheartedly supported Afghans.

At a time when talks in Doha are not moving forward and the war is intensifying across Afghanistan, the United States is talking about withdrawing and reducing its troops from Afghanistan. So the question arises, how to find a way to get a positive result by bringing the running train from the wrong trackback to the right track? Since the United States is the mastermind of this Taliban dialogue drama and the world’s largest foreign stakeholder in Afghanistan, the United States needs to reconsider its withdrawal plan.

 First, the United States came here to eradicate terrorism which instead of diminishing became more widespread and stronger. Second, to ensure the protection of American interests, this region is constantly turning into a hell for the United States.

 If, on one hand, there is an extremist and reactionary Iranian Shiite government and on the other hand there is the extremist Wahabi Sunni Taliban Emirate,  both are two opposite sides of extremism, then neither the United States will find a way out of terrorism nor its interests will be protected. The Taliban’s new deep friendship with the dealer will create incredible difficulties for Russia, Europe and the United States.

At this point, before the United States takes any major step toward the future, let us take a brief look at the outcome of negotiations with the Taliban and focus on some key issues, then it will surely realise if it is a good idea to trust the Taliban or not? That is, the Taliban have not fulfilled a single promise to the United States. A ceasefire during negotiations is a dream to yet come true. Instead of reducing fighting in major cities and towns, they increased their offensives, they have not kept their promise to keep the released prisoners out of the war. At present more than 80 percent of the released prisoners have rejoined the Taliban and are back on fighting ground. They have miserably failed to negotiate with the Afghan government as well as to distance themselves from al-Qaeda and ISIS.

 So the question arises that if the Taliban do not consider it necessary to keep any of the promises made to the United States during the presence of the United States and NATO in Afghanistan, then how will they respect the promises made to the United States?

Before concluding the debate, two important things need to be done by the United States, first, if it has any pressure tool to exert on, then that should be Pakistan to apply on, not the Taliban, as it was on behest of Pakistan that the two years “American Taliban Peace Talks Drama Serial” has proved that Pakistan is the real director of the gory sports in Afghanistan. Actors like the Taliban, ISIS and al-Qaeda are following its lead.

Secondly, if there is a misconception that reconstituting the Taliban in the name of ISIS in the north of Afghanistan, that will spread the war from Afghanistan to Central Asia and later to Russia and it will create difficulties for Russia, then, before doing so, they should remember face-off with Russia in Syria. Rather than conspiring against Russia and its allies, it is better to assign it a proper role to play in resolving the issue of Afghanistan, because Russia and India want peace in Afghanistan more than anyone else.

Now that Doha Talks is stuck and unable to move forward, therefore, Afghanistan with the consultation of the United States and allies should withdraw its negotiating team and seek regular talks with the Taliban through the United States by putting two conditions before the Taliban.

First, The Taliban must recognise and respect the Kabul government as one of the main stockholders. Second, a ceasefire must be declared as soon as the negotiations start. After the fulfillment of these conditions, their negotiating team will be ready and present for talks anytime and anywhere.

The United States should have put these two basic conditions when it first started talks with the Taliban, they could not do so which not only delayed the talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban but reduced the US position to a defeated army instead of portraying it as a superpower. Also, Pakistan and the Taliban took full advantage of this [failure of the US]. The US ally Afghanistan again nothing but the dead bodies of thousands of innocent Afghan citizens.  

The world expects that America will fulfill the purpose for which it had come to Afghanistan and return home with dignity, and stand with Afghanistan in all honesty until the eradication of terrorism, the return of peace and until Pakistan and Iran do not stop their conspiracies against this country [Afghanistan], and until the end the threat of China expansionists designs in the region.

Translated by Balochwarna News for it English reader