The Afghan Problem: A Test of America’s Vision

Hafeez Hassanabadi

The issue of Afghanistan was already complicated because even after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union, Pakistan’s policy of backing Kabul’s enemy forces did not change, as it was the centre of Mujahedeen against the (Khalq) People’s Party. Similarly, it is also the centre of the Taliban fighting against and a safe haven for bin Laden, the founder of Al Qaeda who have been fighting against American ally Afghan government.

The United States, which was well aware of Pakistan’s destructive “capabilities” beforehand, should have differentiated between pro-Taliban Pakistan and the American ally Pakistan instead of simultaneously accepting both so that it would not be easily played by either side. But the USA could not do so, that’s why a problem that could have been solved in six months, remain in its worst form after 20 years.

Governments and leader have changed in Kabul over the years. The USA and NATO made an entry in Place of the Soviet Union. The things that haven’t changed are the Battlefield (Afghanistan) and Pakistan’s destructive as the watchman.  Unfortunately, the USA failed to realise that Pakistan the “faithful watchman” in Asia who steals from the owner’s warehouse and always set fire to the warehouse and destroys all the evidence to hide its crimes.

But the Trump administration, with its reckless policies and actions, has further complicated it by falling into the trap of the Pakistani ISI, which has convinced the Trump administration that the US-Taliban “peace talks” will not only win the election but the United States can honourably exit Afghanistan and its historic credit will go to Trump administration. The reality was quite the opposite of what Pakistan knew very well, it planned to get a lot out of this facility without any delay and it also got a lot of concessions from time to time in return for these false consolations and assurances.

Trapped in Pakistan ‘hostage situation’, Mr. Trump’s policy and Ambassador Khalilzad’s diplomacy gave the United States the impression of a desperate and defeated soldier fleeing from the battlefield in Afghanistan. They also left no stone unturned into the false belief that a pro-Pakistan puppet government would soon be established in Kabul. The fact is that neither the United States has lost in Afghanistan, nor is Pakistan’s supremacy acceptable to the proud Afghan nation, and nor is the United States ready to leave Afghanistan for China and Pakistan. In such conditions, when the USA formulates a new policy on the solution to Afghan issue, it should start from where the mistakes were made at the beginning, which made the problem worse and misunderstandings turned into troubles.

The first mistake is that Pakistan is not an ally of the US in Afghanistan; it is a destructive trouble maker. The second is that it was a wrong decision was to ignore the Afghan government in the US Taliban negotiation process. The third mistake was to put pressure on the Kabul government on the instructions of Pakistan. It was tantamount to axing one’s own feet.  The fourth was that giving concessions to the Taliban and Pakistan without any viable formula and concrete guarantee for peace in Afghanistan was nothing but self-deception. The fifth mistake and sign of submission to defeat was the release of more than five thousand Taliban fighters without any practical guarantee. Today, a large number of Taliban released, have returned to the battleground. As a result, ordinary Afghan people are facing devastating consequences with their loved one being killed on daily basis. In other words, the release Taliban has intensified the bloodshed in Afghanistan and the Trump administration’s misguided policies could be held responsible for this surge in attacks. What is even more unfortunate is that there were around a dozen drug dealers among the released Taliban, the American and allied forces were aware of them.  The sixth and worst mistake was that from the beginning to date the US has either failed to under the Pakistan-Iran-China nexus or deliberately ignored it.

False statements, wrong decisions and wrong actions led to the mistake of handing over Kabul to the Taliban, which created new problems at all levels. This was the impression that the Taliban did not show flexibility at any stage of the talks and neither have they fulfilled their promises made to the USA. Their rhetoric and the intensity of their attacks show that they have been given the impression that they are winner, while the US, NATO and the Kabul government are defeated.

Just as the first round of intera-Afghan talks ended without any result, the second round can also end at any time without any result, but the question is whether this issue can be resolved or not? Our answer to this question is yes, but we dare say that this is the best opportunity in twenty years that the United States will now consider to resolve the Afghan issue based on the best observations and conclusions. If this issue is not now, the chances of a solution shortly will be very limited.

The prospects for resolving the Afghan issue are high because the arsonist Pakistan (that set Afghanistan on fire) is going through the worst period in its history. Pakistan and its subordinate Taliban’s broken promises and the double standard role has been revealed to the United States. China-Pakistan nexus and designs to create troubles for America in this region are no longer a secret. Pakistan’s terror factories like Jaish-e-Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, etc. dozens of religious groups cannot continue their terrorism as before because they are the centre of attention of the world due to FATF. Economically, the country is on the verge of bankruptcy and collapse.

In the last one year alone till November 2020, the debt of this country has increased by 3692.80 billion. The country is mired in debt to such an extent that it is now on the verge of operating by leasing out all national institutions or government property. So far, some electric distribution and generation companies, Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Islamabad. F-Nine Park has been mortgaged for Rs 200 billion, Rs 500 billion and Rs 200 billion respectively. Preparations are also in full swing to close and sell a 1,015 – room Roosevelt Hotel in New York.

Similarly, there are reports of mortgaging the Lahore Airport and Islamabad High Way. On top of all of this is the Reko Diq case with Tethyan Copper Company (TCC) is a separate sword hanging over Pakistan’s head for which Pakistan has to pay 6 billion Dollars following the decision of the ICSID (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes). This sum has been delayed in 2020 because of COVID-19 but in 2021 with the arrival of vaccine and with the return of normalcy, it will have to be paid for.  Also, Pakistan’s major national institutions, railways, PIA, steel mills, etc. are suffering from the worst crises and the steel mill has completely closed down.

In a state embroiled in innumerable internal crises, the Baloch are fighting for their independence while the Pashtuns and Sindhis are fighting for their rights which have shaken the foundations of this state. Ever since India abolished the special status of Kashmir, Pakistan has been at war with it and border clashes have become a daily occurrence. No Islamic countries in the world, including the Arab states, do support Pakistan any more.

The remaining three Pakistan-friendly countries are Iran, Turkey and China. As far as Russia is concerned, they want the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan and lasting peace there, but they will never want Afghanistan to become a centre of religious extremism and a safe haven for terrorists once again. Unlike Russia, Pakistan wants to see Afghanistan become the home of its Jihadists proxies and centre of unending religious war.

At a time when Pakistan is mired in problems from all sides and is not at all ready for a long-term war in Afghanistan by its proxy Taliban because Pakistan’s crippling economic conditions do not allow it and there is no legal justification for the so-called jihad which scholars all over the world have declared inhumane and the biggest sin.

The United States and its allies must ensure that they break the Pakistan-Taliban nexus and persuade the Taliban to think of considering themselves as Afghan citizens and see their homeland as peaceful and prosperous. If they do not do so at the behest of Pakistan, impose all the sanctions on the Taliban and Pakistan that can help stop the bloodshed in Afghanistan.

The day the United States realised that Pakistan and the Taliban as two sides of the same coin and formulated a policy accordingly and supported the Baloch freedom movement, who are the real progressive force of the region, the Afghan issue will be resolved in less time than expected period.  Then the centre of focus will be on thwarting China’s expansionism and Iranian aggressive policies in the region because they (Iran and China) want to see unending bloodshed and keep the US engaged in Afghanistan to ensure their occupation of Gwadar port in Balochistan.