Russia has no choice but to win in Ukraine
By Hafeez Hassanabadi
The issue of Ukraine was not as complicated as much as it was made arduous. Russia and Ukraine have been united ever since Kievan Rus (879-1240 ) came into being. Since then, the region has seen many positive and negative changes but one thing that has never changed is that they have been close neighbours and fraternal nations. During the Soviet era, Kyiv’s capital city of Ukraine’s role was key after Moscow.
It is generally believed that this issue began after February 24, 2022, when Russia recognized the Luhansk and Donetsk republics as independent states and sent troops there at their request but like every major issue here, not everything is so simple, its roots are at least thirty years deep. Yes, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should have been dissolved in principle. Because, with the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and the end of the Warsaw Pact (WP), it was no longer needed. However, this promise was made at the request of Russia at that time that NATO will be kept away from Russia’s borders and that Russia’s integrity will not be threatened by NATO this will be ensured but based on the agreement promises were not full fill later.
Russia’s former President Boris Yeltsin’s weak and incompetent government was the best choice for the West because, according to them at that time, democracy was flourishing there. In reality, Russia was so weakened by internal wars, problems and crises from within that the country claimed to be the successor of a superpower was barely breathing under the burden of a needy and indebted country. That is why Russia was not able to show any appropriate reaction or resistance to the accession of the three Baltic Republics to the European Union and NATO who applied for European Union and NATO membership in 2002 and became a NATO member two years later on March 29, 2004.
Similar aspirations were encouraged in Georgia and Ukraine by the United States of America (U.S.A) and the European Union from the fierce fighting in Chechnya inside Russia to Georgia and Ukraine, new lines have been formed based on hatred of Russia. Terrorists from all over the world gathered in Chechnya, but Russia defeated them and brought the situation under control and Georgia lost its provinces after the use of force in Abkhazia and South Ossetia as a result of hostility to Russia and unilateral love for Europe.
The failure of western powers’ plans in Chechnya and Georgia was the best opportunity for Ukraine that he would put an end to the new wave of hatred against Russia by demonstrating political maturity and would balance relations with Russia while maintaining its friendly ties with the West. But it failed to do so because the United States of America ( U.S.A) and the European Union’s friendship with Ukraine was probably based on hatred of Russia and not to see Ukraine develop so they failed to strike a balance between both.
Ukraine’s government banned the Russian language to please the West and create problems for the Russians in Crimean which, accounts for 65.31% of the Russian population. Crimean, which joined Russia in April 1783, has always been part of Russia it was annexed by the Ukrainian leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1954 after Stalin’s death during the Soviet era.
The new hate situation forces Moscow to revisit its history. In Kyiv with western backing instead of resolving issues politically, it favoured the use of force which pushed Crimean to the extreme therefore, they held a referendum in 2014 in which Crimean decided to join Russia.
Crimean, which had been part of Russia since 1783, after the referendum had returned to its former place of being part of Ukraine for sixty years (1954 to 2014). which was neither acceptable to Ukraine nor was the West ready for it because they had done all this to break Russia from within, but as a result, they cut off their arm. This will be followed by operations in the Russian-populated provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk and denying the Russian language and making business life difficult for Russians speaking they were killed outrights. 1- A 13-point Minsk Agreement was drafted between the local leadership and Ukraine, mediated by Germany and France, and signed by the Russian, Ukrainian and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). On September 5, 2014, the agreement was reached, and the military operation was temporarily halted, but the agreement could not be fully implemented. Therefore, a year later, on February 2, 2015, the second Minsk agreement was signed between the parties.
The agreement included three key points, including the exchange of prisoners, the permanent monitoring of the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the access of aid agencies to the affected areas along these three important and basic points were also included;
1. Ensure an immediate ceasefire on both sides.
2. (OSCE) confirmation and monitoring to ensure compliance with the Bilateral Ceasefire Agreement.
3. Legalizing the decentralization of power in the Constitution of Ukraine to give legal protection to the special status of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics.
The agreement was reached and the military operation was temporarily halted however, the agreement was not fully implemented. This is why a “Minsk “1” II” agreement was signed between the parties but the result was the same no progress was made in implementing the agreement as a result, hatred of Russia has grown to such an extent over the past eight years Ukraine’s central leadership has been heard in public saying that if you are Russian or love Russia, then go to Russia or that the heart wants the story to end by dropping an atom bomb on Moscow.
Can the United States of America (U.S.A) or any other nation tolerate such a statement? Can anyone imagine Hitler in the German parliament and Mussolini in the Italian parliament being declared national heroes? Certainly, not If Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini could not be national heroes in Germany and Italy. So his ally, Stepan Andriyovych Bandera of Ukraine, reported being involved in massacring during Europe World War II up to 100,000 Jews and Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia. How did Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s parliament declare a war criminal a national hero?
Unfortunately, all this was happening under the Europe Union’s nose but no one objected just because Ukraine had become a frontline state in the West’s anti-Russian lineup. European Unions have not reacted to this new wave and trend of fascism in Ukraine which they should have in the strongest form but Russia went through crisis-by-crisis experiences due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union and then long conspiracies Russian president Vladimir Putin could not ignore all these and he took the issue very seriously and to take practical steps for the benefit of his people promptly.
The last eight years have been marked by diplomatic efforts but they have not been able to save the lives of more than 14,000 innocent people who were either Russians living in Ukraine or were opposed to Russian language restrictions or had rejected hatred of Russia. It was the duty of all parties to pay timely attention to this issue. It would be better to say that the first (Post-Minsk “1” “11”) agreement would have been taken seriously and in the first place, the United States and its allies would show such readiness. So the scenario today would not be as catastrophic as it is now and is going to get worse.
Will the US defeat Russia in Ukraine? Absolutely not!
The war is between Russia and Ukraine while in reality there, the United States of America (U.S.A) and its allies are more directly involved with Russia. They appear to be carrying a gun on Ukraine’s weak shoulders to destroy Russia if that is not the case, then the neo-Nazi Azov, who had recently been banned in the United States for his fascist ideology, would urge Europe to distance itself and the world from such ideologies. How did he suddenly become “Good Azov”?
We have seen two such double standards before in Pakistan where the Pakistani “Tehrerk-e-Taliban Pakistan” (TTP) declared terrorists and the “Taliban of Afghanistan” have been called defenders and fighters of Islam. By the way, fascism is rightly unacceptable to America and Europe. But since the “Ukrainian Azovs” fascists are against Russia, they have become “good Azovs.” If so, this is a very dangerous attitude. As a result, the United States and its allies are pushing themselves and the world to an incredible catastrophe by putting all international rules and regulations behind them in their hatred of Russia.
Why is Russia’s victory in Ukraine certain?
Exactly thirteen years ago today, while writing on the issue of Afghanistan, I ended my article “The Only Solution to the Afghan Problem” with these words I concluded by saying, “In our humble opinion, the day when the world powers and America identified the root cause of all evils and perceived that it is laying in the niche of the unnatural division of nations and in the decision of the then British Empire, they would start seeing the problem from a different point of the angle. It would help them resolve this issue, and this emancipates them from the fear of a possible war between Islam and non-believers. Otherwise, today the terrorists who sneak into Europe and carry out terror, but tomorrow they would enter into Europe with diplomatic passports and wreak havoc there”. For instance, today, when the Taliban travel around the world with diplomatic passports. At least I’m not surprised because I was seeing the situation clearly as the United States of America (U.S.A) as a superpower called Pakistan an ally of the “war on terror” under the guidance of Pakistan ignoring the real motives of the Afghan war under the leadership of Pakistan is moving forward and the result is to fall into the abyss and get worse.
In Ukraine, too, the United States and its allies, before forcing Russia to go to war, were oblivious to the components of the war, the harmonization of time and space, and the challenges facing the interests of international powers. They have failed to analyze how far Russia could go in this war. How, far can the United States of America (U.S.A) and its allies carry Ukraine on their shoulders? So they failed to even know what position China and their friend India would ultimately take in the real challenge for them.
Moreover, if this war brings Russia and China closer than before, then China will show them the wizards in the Taiwan conflict during the day. From the beginning, the United States of America and its allies have taken every step wrong, based on the miscalculations of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team.
The United States and its allies have created difficulties for themselves and the world even if the U.S and NATO do their best still they will not be able to overtake Russia for at least 11 key reasons, nor will they be able to save Ukraine from the worst defeat, nor will Europe find a solution to its economic and energy crisis.
1 Russia, aware of NATO’s intentions, sees its proximity to its borders as a threat to its very existence and is fighting for its survival, while the Ukrainian leadership has forced Russia into operation by creating a crisis to please the United States of America and NATO.
2 Recent observations have shown that the United States and NATO think tanks and “war scriptwriters” have failed miserably to improve things in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria, Latin America and Africa. They have intervened in the name of bringing democracy and have destroyed everything by consigning to the grave democracy there.
3 The international support that the United States of America (U.S.A) and its allies have received in the wars of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. is not at all will be available in the case of Russia.
4 It is not possible to break off the relations with Russia and isolate it for too long a time because Europe is badly attached to it and in many cases depends on Russia. Europe will leave Ukarian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the mercy of the circumstance by overthrowing the Kyiv government itself. Where he will be ousted under the best scenario for Mr. Zelensky, and as soon as a new leader arrives, he will make a peace deal with Russia and alleviate Europe’s problems, while in a bad scenario, anything can go awry.
5 The United States and its allies cannot afford to prolong the war even if they want to, because their next step is to start a guerrilla war after the defeat of Kyiv. The plan cannot work. Because what they are thinking is that Russia is ready in advance to remind them once again how Russia broke the back of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), ended the war in Chechnya with the backing of the West
and established peace.
6 Russia has not yet forgotten that the United States of America and NATO have taken advantage in the past. In name of Perestroika which former president of the Soviet Union Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev used in the name of reform caused the collapse of the Soviet Eastern Bloc and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Many observers believe Perestroika tears the Soviet Union to pieces, and caused Internal turmoil, economic crisis, inflation, and corruption. All these disease viruses were introduced into the Russian state body which was enough to destroy its entire existence. Russia and its President Vladimir Putin in particular have not forgotten that war, and will not allow the United States of America and its allies to do the same to Russia that they have done to the former Soviet Union.
7 The role of leadership has always been crucial in the development of states or in dealing with crises, and the Russian leadership is now one of the few awakened leaders in the world. Despite this, the citizens of that country consider their state safe in all respects. At the moment, the Kremlin is not Gorbachev or Boris Yeltsin, but Putin. This is a fact that many opponents need to understand and think about before taking any action.
8 By the time winter begins in Europe and five to ten million migrants arrive there because of the war in Ukraine, The United States’ inability to guarantee Russia’s security that adventurism is getting heavier and heavier for the world. And the war they started, hoping that there would be an uprising inside Russia, that Putin would be overthrown, and that there would be a weak leadership but that is not going to happen. On the contrary, if anything happens there, everything will be in the anti-Russian camp, including disintegration and internal strife, and it is not far off that in the new alignments, Russia will reach the most credible place in its history and increase its influence in the world incredibly.
9 Morally, Russia’s position at the time of entering this war is much better than that of the United States and its allies. During the war in Ukraine, Russia was in Syria, rescuing Bashar al-Assad’s government and defeating ISIS. While the United States and its allies have left Afghanistan and the Afghan people helpless and have suffered the worst defeat.
10 The US and European plan to devalue the ruble by destroying the Russian economy does not seem to be succeeding. It has not been possible to have to disconnect world trade relations with Russia. On the contrary, in the new circumstances, Russia is opening up new markets, new avenues, new resources and new possibilities, which in the future will lead to the expansion of Russia’s economic relations.
11 Freezing Russia’s deposited gold and money in international banks, the United States and its allies have severely damaged their banking credentials.
After the freezing of Russia’s reserves, the negative message reached the whole world. Given this fear, in the current situation, no country may take any immediate action, but they will be forced to think a lot about the future. Naturally, their sympathies will be with Russia in the current context, it may be difficult for the United States of America to imagine how much this sympathy will benefit Russia. Summing up the debate, we are convinced that the war waged by the United States of America (U.S.A) and its allies have provoked Russia and Russia will end that war willingly by barricading Ukraine from neo-Nazi ideas and all possibilities for them to take up arms. However, if the United States of America and its allies want to avoid further catastrophes, the war could end in less than 24 hours, provided that negotiations with Russia should be aimed based on equality and respect for each other’s national interests and not make the negotiations an excuse to prolong the war.
The author is a Baloch journalist who graduated from Leningrad State University USSR. His writings cover a wide range of issues in Balochistan and Central Asia. He has been a senior analyst and columnist for the popular Balochistan-based Daily Tawar Newspaper. He is also the author of the book ‘The Bin Laden’s Secret: How he lived in a Pakistani haven and how it is related to the Baloch national question?’
